It turns out it wasn’t just fans who were perplexed with Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell’s fourth-down decision-making in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game loss to the San Francisco 49ers. One former head coach highlighted the decision to not allow Michael Badgley to kick a potentially game-tying field goal in the fourth quarter as particularly frustrating. “To say the guy might miss the kick is ridiculous,” the coach told Mike Sando of The Athletic. “The guy might drop the ball, and the ball might get batted, and a defensive lineman might beat a guard and hit the quarterback. “Whatever you do, you have to execute. If you decide to kick the field goal, you have to make it. The 49ers’ first field-goal miss was fourth-and-10. Guys have been making or missing field goals forever. But the percentages of kicking the field goal are good.” The Lions turned the ball over on downs twice on Sunday, both coming deep in 49ers territory. The first decision would have given Detroit a chance to go ahead 27-10 in the third quarter with a 45-yard field-goal attempt. Instead, the Lions attempted a pass that went through wideout Josh Reynolds’ hands. The second decision, which saw Campbell pass up a 47-yard attempt that would have tied the game at 27, drew significant ire across social media. That said, analytics supported Campbell’s aggressiveness in both instances. Seth Walder @SethWalder <a href=”https://t.co/M8n5RKqtuQ”>pic.twitter.com/M8n5RKqtuQ</a> Seth Walder @SethWalder A common response I get to a situation like this: the 0.3% isn’t worth passing up the chance to tie.<br><br>The response is that the model is very aware of the score and the *possibility* of tying with a field goal. That is baked in.<br><br>If the model’s outputs are the pure truth (I’m… <a href=”https://t.co/XQkDmC9s4V”>https://t.co/XQkDmC9s4V</a> “It’s easy hindsight. I get it. I get that, but I don’t regret those decisions, and it’s hard,” Campbell told reporters after the game. “It’s hard because we didn’t come through, and it wasn’t able to work out, but I don’t. And I understand the scrutiny I’ll get—that’s part of the gig—but it just didn’t work out.” The third-quarter decision was far more understandable than the one in the fourth. Had Detroit converted on fourth down in the third quarter, it could have amounted to a knockout blow against a 49ers team that was reeling at the time. The combination of potentially scoring later in the drive and running off time made all the sense in the world. The second decision, however, feels like one where conventional wisdom should have won. Even if analytics say there was a minuscule advantage in going for it in that situation, the 49ers had flipped the game script on its head. Punching a hole into their momentum and re-tying the game could have turned the tables back in Detroit’s favor. For their part, Lions players have stood by their coach. “I love it. Keep us out there. We should convert,” quarterback Jared Goff said. “He believes in us. I don’t know what the numbers are, but we had a lot of big-time conversions this year that changed games

