good news :image caption Packers are rewarded for right approach on…
It’s beautiful when good processes lead to good results in the NFL. That’s not always the case, but it’s sustainable when it happens. And the Green Bay Packers draft approach on day 3 is a perfect example. General manager Brian Gutekunst understood a trend, made the right moves, and the results followed.
The correct analytics-driven approach in the draft is to stockpile picks. Teams usually overrate their own capacity to scout, and it almost always backfires.
Do you want an example? In 2017, the New Orleans Saints had an absurd draft class. They took Marshon Lattimore, Ryan Ramczyk, Marcus Williams, Alvin Kamara, Alex Anzalone, Trey Hendrickson, and Al-Quadin Muhammad in the same year.
That allowed a late-career push for quarterback Drew Brees and created a talk that Jeff Ireland would receive another shot at being a general manager. One year later, trusting that they scouted better than anyone else, the Saints traded a future first to move up. The target was Marcus Davenport, who left in free agency after his rookie deal without significant impact.
Since that absurd class in 2017, the Saints have used high draft picks on players like Cezar Ruiz, Payton Turner, and Trevor Penning. A sequence of trade ups limited the roster flexibility, and while they are in position to make the playoffs because the NFC South is bad, they don’t have a healthy roster situation.
The Packers have taken the opposite approach. Besides having extra high picks because of the Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers trades, the team also stockpiled late picks. Over the last two seasons, Green Bay had 16 day-3 selections.
2022
WR Romeo Doubs (4th)
T Zach Tom (4th)
EDGE Kingsley Enagbare (5th)
S Tariq Carpenter (7th)
DT Jonathan Ford (7th)
T Rasheed Walker (7th)
WR Samori Toure (7th)
2023
DT Colby Wooden (4th)
QB Sean Clifford (5th)
WR Dontayvion Wicks (5th)
DT Karl Brooks (6th)
K Anders Carlson (6th)
CB Carrington Valentine (7th)
RB Lew Nichols (7th)
S Anthony Johnson Jr. (7th)
WR Grant DuBose (7th
Among these 16 picks, there are high-impact players at premium positions like Zach Tom, Romeo Doubs, Rasheed Walker, and Carrington Valentine. Significant rotational players like Kingsley Enagbare, Dontayvion Wicks, Karl Brooks, and Anthony Johnson Jr. are also part of the equation. Only Tariq Carpenter and Lew Nichols are not on the Packers anymore.
Beyond being impactful and solid or better players, they are cheap and have longer deals.
The seventh-round strategy is particularly interesting. Brian Gutekust understood a questionable trend, and went in the opposite direction. Teams around the NFL are investing a lot in guarantees to undrafted players. The Minnesota Vikings, for instance, guaranteed $300k to edge defender Andre Carter II. He made the 53-man roster, but has played only 5% of the defensive snaps so far.
Meanwhile, the Packers had four seventh-round picks. Therefore, they had the option to secure a player without open market competition, and the guarantees were lower. Cornerback Carrington Valentine, for example, has $100k in guarantees, and a longer contract (four years) than an undrafted player (three years) would.
It’s obviously hard to find real NFL players in the seventh-round, but it’s easier with more volume. And with eight picks, Gutekunst found two starters at premium positions: Valentine and left tackle Rasheed Walker.
Certainly, Brian Gutekunst has a good scouting track record, and this is the main ability who got him the general manager job in the first place. But the draft is too volatile for anyone to be full of themselves, and adding more and more picks is the perfect approach in today’s NFL.
